San Diego Padres Playoff Odds
Season Overview
Playoff Numbers
Playoff Odds Over Time
Seed Probabilities
| Seed | Probability |
|---|---|
| #1 Seed | 0.3% |
| #2 Seed | 0.6% |
| #3 Seed | 1.0% |
| #4 Seed | 10.1% |
| #5 Seed | 12.5% |
| #6 Seed | 16.0% |
| #7 Seed | 9.9% |
| #8 Seed | 12.6% |
| #9 Seed | 13.4% |
| #10 Seed | 8.3% |
| #11 Seed | 8.8% |
| #12 Seed | 3.9% |
NL West Standings
| Team | Record | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 52-29 | 99.2% |
| San Diego Padres | 42-37 | 40.5% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 41-39 | 28.0% |
| San Francisco Giants | 33-47 | 0.3% |
| Colorado Rockies | 32-49 | 0.0% |
San Diego Padres 2026 Playoff Chances
The San Diego Padres currently have a 40.5% probability of making the 2026 MLB playoffs, based on BaseChaser's 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations updated daily. With a record of 42-37 and 83 games remaining, the Padres are projected to finish the season at 83-78.
The Padres have a magic number of 85 to clinch a playoff spot. Their remaining schedule ranks #8 in difficulty out of 30 MLB teams. Tonight, their playoff odds range from 37% (worst case) to 44% (best case) depending on results around the league.
These San Diego Padres playoff odds are calculated using Elo ratings calibrated to real game results, blended with WAR-based team strength priors. BaseChaser simulates the entire remaining MLB season 100,000 times, accounting for schedule difficulty, head-to-head matchups, and division/Wild Card tiebreaker rules.