Miami Marlins Playoff Odds
Season Overview
Playoff Numbers
Postseason Path
Playoff Odds Over Time
Seed Probabilities
| Seed | Probability |
|---|---|
| #3 Seed | 0.3% |
| #4 Seed | 0.8% |
| #5 Seed | 4.9% |
| #6 Seed | 8.5% |
| #7 Seed | 15.4% |
| #8 Seed | 23.7% |
| #9 Seed | 16.4% |
| #10 Seed | 18.4% |
| #11 Seed | 5.7% |
| #12 Seed | 5.0% |
NL East Standings
| Team | Record | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 73-50 | 98.5% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 66-58 | 54.1% |
| Miami Marlins | 63-61 | 14.6% |
| Washington Nationals | 60-65 | 1.8% |
| New York Mets | 55-69 | 0.0% |
Miami Marlins 2026 Playoff Chances
The Miami Marlins currently have a 14.6% probability of making the 2026 MLB playoffs, based on BaseChaser's 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations updated daily. With a record of 63-61 and 38 games remaining, the Marlins are projected to finish the season at 82-80.
Their remaining schedule ranks #3 in difficulty out of 30 MLB teams. Tonight, their playoff odds range from 12% (worst case) to 17% (best case) depending on results around the league.
These Miami Marlins playoff odds are calculated using Elo ratings calibrated to real game results, blended with WAR-based team strength priors. BaseChaser simulates the entire remaining MLB season 100,000 times, accounting for schedule difficulty, head-to-head matchups, and division/Wild Card tiebreaker rules.