Miami Marlins Playoff Odds
Season Overview
Playoff Numbers
Playoff Odds Over Time
Seed Probabilities
| Seed | Probability |
|---|---|
| #1 Seed | 0.1% |
| #2 Seed | 0.8% |
| #3 Seed | 2.5% |
| #4 Seed | 5.6% |
| #5 Seed | 9.5% |
| #6 Seed | 9.6% |
| #7 Seed | 14.2% |
| #8 Seed | 13.8% |
| #9 Seed | 9.3% |
| #10 Seed | 15.4% |
| #11 Seed | 7.8% |
| #12 Seed | 7.4% |
NL East Standings
| Team | Record | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 48-31 | 91.4% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 45-36 | 75.7% |
| Miami Marlins | 42-39 | 28.1% |
| Washington Nationals | 41-41 | 15.2% |
| New York Mets | 34-47 | 0.5% |
Miami Marlins 2026 Playoff Chances
The Miami Marlins currently have a 28.1% probability of making the 2026 MLB playoffs, based on BaseChaser's 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations updated daily. With a record of 42-39 and 81 games remaining, the Marlins are projected to finish the season at 82-79.
Their remaining schedule ranks #11 in difficulty out of 30 MLB teams. Tonight, their playoff odds range from 25% (worst case) to 33% (best case) depending on results around the league.
These Miami Marlins playoff odds are calculated using Elo ratings calibrated to real game results, blended with WAR-based team strength priors. BaseChaser simulates the entire remaining MLB season 100,000 times, accounting for schedule difficulty, head-to-head matchups, and division/Wild Card tiebreaker rules.