MLB Playoff Odds
Updated: 2026-09-04 02:40 UTC — Powered by 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
2 games LIVE. OAK @ SEA has major playoff implications.
Blue Jays beat Guardians — now at 41%. Rangers beat Rays — now at 33%. LIVE: Athletics @ Mariners — both with playoff stakes. LIVE: Cardinals @ Dodgers — both with playoff stakes.
Movers: Blue Jays ↑19%, Astros ↑18%, Cardinals ↑3%, Orioles ↓5%, Guardians ↓17%, Twins ↓2%
Bubble Watch: Astros (78%) in good shape with 21 games to go. | D-backs (52%) right on the bubble — their record (74-67) leaves little room for error. | Padres (44%) right on the bubble — their record (73-67) leaves little room for error. | Blue Jays (41%) right on the bubble — their record (70-71) leaves little room for error.
| Team | Record | Division | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 82-57 | NL West | 99.9% |
| MIL | 87-54 | NL Central | 99.8% |
| BOS | 76-65 | AL East | 98.7% |
| CHC | 79-62 | NL Central | 98.0% |
| ATL | 83-57 | NL East | 96.9% |
| PHI | 79-61 | NL East | 96.1% |
| NYY | 80-60 | AL East | 95.7% |
| TB | 83-57 | AL East | 95.6% |
| CWS | 73-67 | AL Central | 89.5% |
| HOU | 72-69 | AL West | 77.8% |
| ARI | 74-67 | NL West | 51.5% |
| SD | 73-67 | NL West | 44.4% |
| TOR | 70-71 | AL East | 41.1% |
| CLE | 70-70 | AL Central | 39.1% |
| TEX | 70-71 | AL West | 33.2% |
| BAL | 69-72 | AL East | 16.0% |
| MIA | 71-70 | NL East | 6.8% |
| MIN | 67-73 | AL Central | 6.7% |
| SEA | 66-74 | AL West | 5.7% |
| STL | 70-70 | NL Central | 5.4% |
| PIT | 69-72 | NL Central | 1.3% |
| DET | 64-75 | AL Central | 0.9% |
| CIN | 67-73 | NL Central | 0.1% |
| KC | 63-78 | AL Central | 0.0% |
| OAK | 54-86 | AL West | 0.0% |
| LAA | 53-87 | AL West | 0.0% |
| WSH | 67-75 | NL East | 0.0% |
| NYM | 63-77 | NL East | 0.0% |
| SF | 58-83 | NL West | 0.0% |
| COL | 54-86 | NL West | 0.0% |