St. Louis Cardinals Playoff Odds
Season Overview
Playoff Numbers
Postseason Path
Playoff Odds Over Time
Seed Probabilities
| Seed | Probability |
|---|---|
| #4 Seed | 0.5% |
| #5 Seed | 4.1% |
| #6 Seed | 7.9% |
| #7 Seed | 11.9% |
| #8 Seed | 20.8% |
| #9 Seed | 21.3% |
| #10 Seed | 16.8% |
| #11 Seed | 8.5% |
| #12 Seed | 6.7% |
NL Central Standings
| Team | Record | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 76-48 | 97.3% |
| Chicago Cubs | 72-52 | 95.9% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 62-61 | 12.5% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 59-63 | 1.6% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 60-65 | 1.5% |
St. Louis Cardinals 2026 Playoff Chances
The St. Louis Cardinals currently have a 12.5% probability of making the 2026 MLB playoffs, based on BaseChaser's 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations updated daily. With a record of 62-61 and 39 games remaining, the Cardinals are projected to finish the season at 81-81.
Their remaining schedule ranks #20 in difficulty out of 30 MLB teams. Tonight, their playoff odds range from 10% (worst case) to 15% (best case) depending on results around the league.
These St. Louis Cardinals playoff odds are calculated using Elo ratings calibrated to real game results, blended with WAR-based team strength priors. BaseChaser simulates the entire remaining MLB season 100,000 times, accounting for schedule difficulty, head-to-head matchups, and division/Wild Card tiebreaker rules.