⚾ BaseChaser← Back to Odds

Twins Homers Hold Up as Astros Ninth-Inning Rally Falls Short

Minnesota beat Houston 5-4 and kept its playoff-race pulse alive with three home runs and a tense finish.

By BaseChaser · June 30, 2026 · 3 min read

Minnesota beat Houston 5-4 on June 29.

The Twins opened the scoring in the fourth with back-to-back solo homers from Royce Lewis and Victor Caratini, giving Minnesota a 2-0 lead.

Houston answered in the fifth when Cam Smith hit a solo homer to cut the lead to 2-1.

Minnesota stretched it back out in the sixth. Josh Bell homered to right-center, scoring Brooks Lee and pushing the Twins ahead 4-1.

The Twins added another run in the seventh when Kody Clemens grounded out, bringing home Luke Keaschall to make it 5-1.

Houston made it tight in the ninth. Taylor Trammell hit a two-run homer, then Cam Smith followed with his second homer of the game to cut it to 5-4.

Zebby Matthews earned the win after allowing one run over seven innings. Peter Lambert took the loss after allowing four runs over 5.2 innings. Yoendrys Gómez recorded the save.

5-4
Final score, Twins over Astros.
3 HR
Minnesota got home runs from Lewis, Caratini, and Bell.
20.7%
Minnesota's latest BaseChaser playoff odds.
40.0%
Houston's latest BaseChaser playoff odds.

What It Means

The Twins improve to 41-45. The Astros fall to 42-45.

BaseChaser lists the Twins at 20.7% to make the playoffs and the Astros at 40.0%.

Track every team's playoff race with 100,000 simulations updated daily at BaseChaser.

100,000 simulations updated daily, see every team's playoff path

View MLB Playoff Odds →