Pete Alonso hit his 39th and 40th home runs of the season at Camden Yards on September 21, delivering a milestone night that doubled as the game-winning shot. The Orioles held on to beat the Blue Jays 4-3, and Toronto's playoff hopes took a nearly fatal blow.
What happened at Camden Yards
Alonso wasted no time making his presence felt. His first homer of the night got Baltimore on the board early. Gunnar Henderson kept the Orioles within striking distance with a solo shot in the 6th inning. Then in the 8th, Alonso stepped up again and delivered the go-ahead solo homer — his 40th of the season — giving Baltimore a lead it would not surrender. Yennier Cano closed it out from the bullpen to earn the win.
The playoff picture
Toronto falls to 77-80 with three games remaining. The Blue Jays are now functionally on the brink of elimination at 0.7% on the BaseChaser board — down from 1.3% the day before. The math is brutal: they need to win out and get a cascade of help across the league to have any realistic shot at October.
"One swing away from elimination. That's where the Blue Jays stand after Alonso's milestone night at Camden Yards."
What's left
Toronto has three games remaining on the schedule. Even a sweep doesn't guarantee survival if the chaos scenarios don't break their way. Based on 100,000 simulations, the Blue Jays' window is closing fast — and Wednesday could be the final night of their 2026 season.